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How Consistent Was Every Premier League Lineup This Season?

fivethirtyeight.com
submitted
8 mos ago
byvaliantexplorertosports

Summary

To evaluate the consistency of Newcastle’s squad, along with every other Premier League team this season, we created a new metric called STABLE. A team that switches its entire lineup from one match to the next would earn a 0 percent.

For the richest clubs with deep rosters, inconsistency could be more of a feature than a bug. But there isn’t actually a tidy relationship between consistency and success. We created a unique fingerprint for each club that offers nuanced detail about a team’s identity and its season.

Mikel Arteta used only 22 unique starting 11s, the lowest figure in the league. The biggest shake-ups to Arsenal lineups came through injury.

Pep Guardiola uses 37 unique starting 11s in 38 Premier League matches this season. Newcastle United finished top-four and qualified for the Champions League.

Newcastle’s tactical success was founded on their defensive unit, which was one of the best in the league. The Blues finished in 12th place, sitting 8 points closer to relegation than they are to the top six.

Chelsea used 38 different starting 11s in 38 matches this season. A number of long-term or lingering injuries affected key players. What resulted was a team lacking any semblance of identity or cohesion.

A team that played one set of 11 players a full 90 minutes in one match and a different set of 10 in its next match. The team's STABLE score through two matches of the season would be 0 percent.

Stoppage time at the end of the first half is included in the 45th minute. Any player subbed on is attributed a minimum of one minute played.

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7 Comments

2
joseph
8 mos ago
Poor Chelsea lol
1
valiantexplorerOP
8 mos ago
Somebody has to be an outlier!
2
joseph
8 mos ago
Still gotta feel bad for them! Seems to be their curse this decade!
2
eldiscipulo
8 mos ago*
I can't express enough how much I love someone taking the data and presenting it in such a digestible way
2
getthatmoneyyo
8 mos ago
Almost as if not introducing dumbass and unexpected changes in the middle of the season yields better results
2
valiantexplorerOP
8 mos ago
Kind of the hardest things to pull off of attempted. Surprised so many do.
2
getthatmoneyyo
8 mos ago
It's a gamble. Works well if successful!